Tuesday, January 31, 2012

How the Bubble Burst

The Holy Trinity of lying, cheating, and stealing are at the core of our current economic misery.
In his blistering critique of the present economic and political mess, Rolling Stone journalist, Matt Taibbi, lays it all out in ugly detail:

We are "being bled dry by a relatively tiny oligarchy of extremely clever financial criminals and their castrato henchmen in government, whose main job is to be good actors on TV...this invisible hive of high-class thieves stays in business because" ...we have not been paying attention and because it is "fiendishly" complicated.[i]
We should take responsibility for our own part in this mess. While all this lying, cheating, and stealing has been going on, the American public has been sitting around  listening to drug addicted entertainers (posing as news sources) make up bizarre stories about how everything is the fault of food stamps and cruel government regulators crushing small business with burdensome requirements such as OSHA, food safety, and clean air laws. We have been shopping at the mall (protected by pepper spray, of course) and fretting about Paris Hilton, Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and the Kardashians while a gang of thieves has been making like Bernie Made-Off with everything we own or ever will own, including our children's futures. Like looters during a flood.

To keep the scam going, this gang of theives has managed to convince Joe the plumber and other gullible rubes that our financial crisis is the fault of big government and poor people in the ghetto.


The most illogical tale we have been suckered into believing is that the heavy hand of too much government regulation is the root problem.  This story turns everything inside out and upside down.
After gutting financial regulatory systems that have worked since the great depression to protect us from bank fraud, big banks and corporations are now actually trying to convince the victims of their grand larceny that excessive regulation is the problem. Enron? Madoff? AIG? The devastating real estate bubble? The bank bailout?  All this unabated thievery was caused by too much regulation?
It takes a very gullible person to swallow that storyline.
But, of course, we are gullible.  We have trusted gurus to believe in, such as the once respected head of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. Alan was known for encouraging new home owners to buy exotic mortgages because rates were going to go down for the forseeable future.As soon as everybody bought into the rotten scam, Greenspan started raising rates and did not quit until, after 17 consecutive interest rate hikes, the housing bubble popped, taking millions of American’s home equity and the world economy down with it. [ii]

Then, in 1999, Greenspan encouraged everyone in America not to worry about the risk of widespread gambling on unregulated derivatives, saying  with a straight face:  "the value-added of derivatives derives from their ability to enhance the process of wealth creation".[iii]  
Greenspan’s don’t-worry-be-happy advice proved catastrophic.  Soon after he made these false prophecies, we fell headlong into the banking crisis based on the failure of derivatives (referred to by Warren Buffet as "financial time bombs"). The derivatives were all tied to Wall Street banks and their insurance allies (e.g. AIG) who were creating and peddling leveraged CDOs to suckers throughout the world backed by worthless liar loans.
First came the shocking collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the world’s largest investment banks.  Lehman Brothers went under because it  got caught holding too many worthless mortgage backed securities that it could not unload in time.  Its failure triggered a worldwide economic crisis requiring unprecedented government intervention to stave off a new depression.[iv]
Believing as PT Barnum (allegedly) did that there is a sucker born every day, some of our leaders are now trying to convince us to blame the financial crisis on poor people who the government encouraged to buy houses they could not afford.  Presidential candidate, the Herminator, a.k.a. Pizza Dude, knows where to place the blame: "Don't blame Wall Street. Don't blame the big banks. If you don't have a job and you are not rich, blame yourself".[v]

What really caused the financial/housing/banking crisis was a little bit different.

There were several stages. It took a village of liars, cheaters, and theives to make this all work.
First, teams of lying, cheating, and stealing mortgage brokers and mortgage issuers (Countrywide Finance, WaMu etc.) scammed people into taking out insane cheater subprime mortgages. They joked on their emails about issuing expenive mortgages to anyone and everyone and then selling them off to mortgage buyers on the same day.

The mortgages were referred to as "liar loans", because the mortgage brokers encouraged prospective home buyers to use false data in the loan application. Another name was "NINJA loans," so called because the loan applicant had no income, no job, and no assets.

The criteria for these loans, one mortgage broker said, was “could the borrower fog a windshield?”[vi] In some cases, if the buyer could not qualify under any stretch of imagination, the originators merely altered and forged the loan applications themselves. 

Next, the originators transferred the worthless mortgage debt in nano seconds to Fannie, Freddie, and giant Wall Street middlemen (Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, etc.). They, in turn, got the rating agencies to put the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval on the junk to make it look good to the outside world. Then AIG insured everything.

Finally the stinking mess was dumped on buyers across the world.  The rest is history.

Too much government regulation? 

What about AIG? AIG was issuing insurance for these securities. There is no Federal regulation of insurance. None. Zero. AIG was a huge international Federally-UNregulated insurance company.  When they insured anything, they were gambling pure and simple, making bundles of money. 

The banks?  Their activities during the build up of the bubble  were completely unregulated according to the nation’s leading bank fraud investigator. [iv] In 1999, the banks got Congress to repeal the Glass-Steagall law that prevented conflictfs of interest in the financial services industry.[vii] The wreckage that was inevitably going to result from that repeal was written on the billboard in Congress in day-glow paint by Congressman John Dingel who predicted almost every detail of the crash to come on the House floor during the debate about that issue. The speech by Congressman Dingel is still available on Youtube.

Only now, years later are the big banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Chasse, Wells Fargo, and Ally Financial facing a possible criminal charges under State laws.[viii]
Blame this mess that ensued on burdensome regulations?

The thinking about too much regulation is backwards, upside down, and inside out.  Even the regulators (Greenspan at the Fed and Chris Cox at the SEC) who had at least some authority to stem the tide of lying, cheating, and stealing by banks were philosophically opposed to regulation of banks, arguing that the banking system would “cleanse itself” of misbehavior.[iv]

Their excuse now? "We didn't have enough staff".
The real reason we are in this mess is that lying, cheating, and stealing have become a pandemic in our society, our politics, and our economy, and no one has any idea what to do about it.

One thing seems clear, however.  As a leading authority on the criminal activities of Wall Street banks during the housing scandal put it, "If we don't uncover the facts and put them out there, it will happen again."[ix]


[i] Matt Taibbi, Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America, (2010). Taibbi says that it is extremely difficult to understand the crimes of the modern financial elite because  of the “complexity and day-to-day invisibility” (My Advice to the Occupy Wall Street Protesters, Rolling Stone Oct. 27, 2011)
[ii] Opening Statement of Chairman Christopher Dodd-Hearing on “Mortgage Market Turmoil: Causes and Consequences” U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, March 22, 2007.

[iii] Greenspan speech to the Futures Industry Association.
[iv]  William K. Black on Bill Moyers Journal, April 23, 2010.  
[v] Herman Cain, Oct 5 interview with Wall Street Journal.
[vi] James Theckston, former regional vice president for Chase Home Finance in southern Florida, told the New York Times on November 1, 2011, that he and his team shoveled money out the door as home mortgages to anyone and everyone.  According to Theckston, if you found a bag lady in the street, she was a target for a mortgage, and the more subprime it was, the bigger the profit he made.  All this, he said, was driven by pressure from the top.  Theckston is still bothered that the banks were bailed out, but the homeowners who were victimized are still underwater.  Nicholas Kristoff,  A Banker Speaks with Regret, NY Times Nov 30, 2011.

[vii] This repeal was part of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act.

[viii] Harold Meyerson in "Holding the Banks Accountable," Washington Post, Feb 1, p.A17.

[ix] N.Y. Attorney General Eric Schneiderman quoted by Harold Meyerson in "Holding the Banks Accountable," Washington Post, Feb 1, p.A17.


Monday, January 30, 2012

The Science of Lying


Mark Twain said a truth is not hard to kill, and a lie well told is immortal.” 
Public lying is so common in our world that we take it for granted in advertising, in entertainment, and, sadly, in politics. There is even a website dedicated to the science of lying, called “deceptology.”


Human communication researchers have been studying the prevalence of deception.  One leading study found that the average person lies once or twice a day, either exaggerations or outright deceptions.  Some lying fulfills important interpersonal functions, like smoothing over difficulties or protecting fragile egos.  Some have more malicious motivations. [i] Other studies show that  nearly a quarter of all lies are told by the top 1% of liars and nearly half of all lies are told by the top 5% of the most prolific liars.[ii]
William Hazlitt (1778-1830), a British writer, once asserted that ‘‘life is the art of being deceived.’’ Deception is a part of all life, human and animal. Animals use camouflage to avoid being eaten.  According to an article about neuroscience, “Some researchers have gone so far as to postulate that human brains are innately primed to deceive, since deception is recorded in all societies, extending back to the earliest written record, and it occurs early in life in a predictable manner.”[iii]
With so much lying going on, why is it so easy to get people to believe lies? Some students of the phenomenon think that it first has to do with self-deception.  We deceive ourselves better to deceive others, they say. [iv] Other studies indicate that there is something they call the “truth bias” at work. “Simply put, people tend to believe more than they disbelieve, and this is one of the most stable and important findings in deception research. …[D]eception research has not fully come to grips with the implications of truth-bias.”[v] In layman’s terms, people are gullible.  Nigerian internet-scam grifters make their living by manipulating this feature of the human psyche.
Even more troubling than our inherent willingness to believe just about any lie we are told is recent work in computational and cognitive neuroscience that supports another explanation of why some lies work so well.  Lying often works because we are prisoners of our preexisting belief systems.  Scientists have found that if you believe in something strongly and it's really important to you as a person (your worldview), you will cling to it--no matter what.  

Another troubling aspect of how lies affect us is that: “Despite best efforts to correct misinformation it can't be completely eliminated."[vi]  As Andy Clark explained in his online article, research shows that our perceptions are essentially a kind of “controlled hallucination” and that the structure of our expectations (both conscious and non-conscious) ….[determine] much of what we see, hear and feel.” In other words, our beliefs and expectations about what things are or should be will often trump the obvious truth staring us in the face. You can prove how this works on yourself by viewing the so called "hollow face illusion" which appears on many sites on the web.


[i] The Real Truth about Lying. Reports on the psychology of lying. Study by psychologist and lying expert Bella DePaulo; Benefits of lying; Prevalence of lying among community members and students. By Peter Doskoch, published on September 01, 1996.  This study reports that one tenth of lies are exaggerations, on average, and 60 percent were outright deceptions. The rest were subtle lies.
[ii] Serota, K. B., Levine, T. R., and Boster, F. J. (2010). The prevalence of lying in America: Three studies of reported deception. Human Communication Research, 36, 1-24.
[iii] Giorgio Ganis and Julian P. Keenan,  The Cognitive Neuroscience of Deception , Psychology Press, 2009.
[iv] Robert Trivers, The Folly of Fools, the Logic of Deceit and Self-Deception in Human Life (2011).
[v] Gilbert, D. T. (1991). How mental systems believe. American Psychologist, 46, 107-119.  For more fascinating research on lying and gullibility see the University of Michigan studies listed  here.
[vi] Assistant Professor Ullrich Ecker and colleagues from The University of Western Australia  have outlined their findings in a recent article published in Psychonomic Bulletin and Review . (2011)

Welcome to the Magic Show!


Welcome to my blog on lying, cheating, and stealing, some of the most popular activities in the world today!


My intention with this blog is not to teach anyone how to lie, cheat, or steal. We learned enough about how to do that in elementary school.  The idea here is to explore the many ways that other people (especially political figures and business leaders) are lying to us, cheating us, and stealing everything they can from us.


Don't get the idea that this is some kind of namby-pamby moral screed about the importance of being earnest and truthful. Far from it. A world without lies would be a bleak and boring monochrome place. No fairy tales, no novels, no films, no stories of any kind. Nothing to spice up the tasteless facts. It would be worse than Orwell's worst nightmare! Lies color our lives. Fortunately, a world without lies is unimaginable.


Obviously this is a HUGE topic. There is a book on white-collar crime entitled "Lying, cheating, and stealing..." by Stuart Green. Other books on different aspects of this phenomenon are clogging the bookshelves. I have my own favorites. [i]  Bill Moyers also has a good list on his website. Send me your list! I am a sponge for this stuff.


I spent a 40-year career in the halls of Congress observing experts in the world of political lying, cheating, and stealing.  Since that time, still fascinated by it, I have been doing additional research on the subject, which I will share with you here on this blog. And you can share your views here as well. Please do!


Lying, cheating, and stealing are not confined to politics, of course. We are all like fish swimming in a big ocean of lies, frauds, and thievery. Deception is the name of the game.


Recently I went to see a performance at the Arena Stage in Washington, D.C. called the "Elephant room".  There, among a plethora of other tricks and jokes, three comedic magicians performers sawed my partner, Amber Jones, in half. Amazingly, she lived!


Magicians can teach us a lot about lying, cheating, and stealing.  To pull off their stunts, they use a technique called "misdirection" to distract your attention while they steal your watch and wallet. They are exploiting a feature of human cognition that involves gaps in our perception.


Politicians do something similar.  A good magician can make an elephant disappear right in front of our eyes.  A skilled political performer can make an uncomfortable observation instantly evaporate into thin air. Politicians embrace a type of misdirection called "rhetoric" to distract people from unpleasant aspects of their character or political history.


Take Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich, for example. Gingrich is a consummate performer who has mastered the trickster's art of political misdirection. In the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary debates, he was asked by the moderator about his ex-wife’s embarrassing revelation concerning his desire for an open marriage. Gingrich instantly launched an emotional and vitriolic attack on the despicable news media. His adjectives were purple. (He favors "destructive, odious, vicious, despicable, audacious, inexcusable, dishonest, laughable, disgusting, and incompetent.")  The open-marriage elephant disappeared while the audience cheered loudly for the red meat Gingrich was feeding them, completely forgetting the question at hand. Gingrich triumphed in the primary, of course, largely based on this single skillful misdirection.


Just as politicians emulate magicians, magicians admire the kind of stagecraft that politicians use.  One of the magicians at the Arena Stage performance  of “Elephant Room,” Louie Magic, said “D.C.'s got more tricks that we’ve got. It’s full of deception. That’s why people appreciate it here…People come to our show looking for tips—politicians looking for tricks.”[ii] 

We all enjoy being fooled by magicians, politicians, and other performers.  With a little misdirection here and there, it is easy for them to get our buy-in. As magicians know, people loved being fooled by a really good trickster.  Paradoxically, we enjoy being lied to!

[i] On my short list are books by Matt Taibbi, Spanking the Donkey: On the Campaign Trail with the Democrats, (ISBN 1-56584-891-8), New Press, 2005; Smells Like Dead Elephants: Dispatches from a Rotting Empire, (ISBN 0-8021-7041-2),Grove Press, Black Cat, 2007; The Great Derangement: A Terrifying True Story of War, Politics & Religion at the Twilight of the American Empire, (ISBN 0-385-52034-4), Spiegel & Grau, 2008 and Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America, (2010).

Michael Lewis has also written extensively on the subject:  The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, W.W. Norton & Co.. ISBN 0-393-07223-1 (2010);   Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity, W.W. Norton & Co.. ISBN 0-393-06514-6. (2008); The Money Culture. New York: W.W. Norton. ISBN 0-393-03037-7.  (1991);  and Liar's Poker: Rising through the Wreckage on Wall Street, W.W. Norton. ISBN 0-393-02750-3. (1989).

There are many other writers and scholars working onthis subject, such as Gretchen Morgenson, Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon, 2011; Ellen Schultz,  Retirement Heist, How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest Eggs of American Workers (2011); and Lawrence Lessig, Republic Lost, 2011.

[ii] Louie Magic, as quoted by Maura Judkis in “'Elephant Room’: Do You Believe in Magic?”, Washington Post, January 22, 2012, p. E3.