Thursday, May 24, 2012

Whales


The last blog was about how Americans like being BIG.

But the blog was too small to fit in some important big things.  I had to leave out some things Americans do big, like eat really BIG meals. To read a good story about the new trend in eating big, check out the article by Jim Hightower on Nation of Change.  Hightower describes the new trend-setting "Heart Attack Grill" in Vegas where, if you weigh over 350 pounds, you can eat for free!  They serve things like a "Quadruple Bypass Burger", "Butter Fat Shakes", and "Flatliner Fries" cooked in pure lard, all with "Taste Worth Dying For." As Hightower notes, “two diners have collapsed so far this year while pounding down Bypass Burgers.” 

I also had to leave out the story of really big bank losses ($2-$7 billion in the case of JP Morgan Chase.)

To the ordinary person $7 billion, or even only $2 billion, seems like a big amount to lose, but for a bank as big as JP Morgan Chase, $2 billion is considered chicken feed. Chump change.  JP Morgan Chase has more money than most countries do. It is too big to fail on steroids. Greece can fail. So can Portugal and maybe even Italy, but JP Morgan Chase is way too big to fail.

What does “too big to fail” mean?  It means that when the too-big thing starts to fail, the little guys and poor people have to bail it out.  This is what we taxpayers did for the biggest insurance conglomerate in the world, AIG, when it looked like it was going to fail and bring down lots of other companies with it.

A bank or other financial institution becomes too big to fail when its impending failure involves losses referred to as “systemic” because they will set off a chain reaction causing the collapse of the entire financial system worldwide.  Apparently, because several banks and other financial institutions are now so big, this can happen any time now, more or less at random.

What else is big?

Whales, that’s what. The largest known animal in the world is the Blue Whale.  The biggests of these ever found was, a female 110.14 feet in length weighing about 150 tons.[1]

Whales are the biggest mammals on the planet now that dinosaurs have become extinct due to global warming or an asteroid hitting the earth near Yucatan—or whatever it was.[2]

Whales are so big that you can get swallowed by one and wander around in their stomachs. That is what happened to Noah –or was it Jonah or Moses?  Anyway, it was one of those old testament dudes.  This is the God’s truth because the Bible is God’s word, translated for us by some illiterate goat herders out in the Saudi Arabian desert.

We also know that the whale story, and all the other bible stories too, are the real history of the way things went down back in the day because we have the polls to prove it. Polls show that 77 percent of Republicans believe every single word of the bible to be the historical truth, together with 59 percent of Democrats, and 50 percent of the other smart citizens of the USA.[3]

Today there is a new species of whale, known as the “London Whale.”  This creature brings us right back to the America's biggest bank JP Morgan Chase.

The London Whale is –or was—employed by that too-big-to-fail firm.  The London Whale was a very big trader; hence his name. However, he personally was not too big to fail. He gambled away $2 billion, or maybe even $7 billion, and got fired after he was found out by the ever watchful Jaime Diamon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase.

How did the London Whale do it?

The Whale by his other name was Bruno Iksil.   He was a trader for JP Morgan Chase in London. He bought credit default swaps (CDSs) to cover the firm’s exposure to high yield bonds. OK. No problem there.
The London Whale

But…. when he realized he was losing money on the swaps because the bonds were looking better,  he bought some different CDS’s betting in the opposite direction to cover the possible losses on the first basket CDS purchases.  Now it is getting dubious.

Then when the market started moving against the second CDS package, he bought a third package betting in the other direction, a package of CDS betting on investment grade bonds.

Iksil was like a snake chasing his own tail around.  He was hedging, then hedging against his hedge and then hedging against that hedge.

The problem was that the Whale's purchases were so big that he threw the entire market out of whack.  Some hedge fund managers were getting hurt by his moves. Hedge fund managers are known as “sharks.”

The sharks were pissed. They decided to eat the whale.  And they did. To the tune of somewhere between $2 and $7 billion. So far.

Those who want to learn more about the trades (a.k.a. g “bets”) made by the Whale, which were horribly complex and about the tasty big meal that the sharks enjoyed, can read about it here.

And if you think this is over now, think again. J.P. Morgan Chase may still be about to go off the cliff.[4]

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[1] For more fun facts about these big critters click here.
[2] Scientists think that the asteroid created a bunch of dust that clogged up the atmosphere and caused global warning. This wiped out the dinos very quickly. The theories are discussed here.
[3] The survey appears on the wind website.
[4] The link refers to an article by Colin Lokey, advising investors to stay as far away from J.P. Morgan Chase as they can,  or maybe take a short position on the company which, Loeky says, could be in for losses in the $31 billion range as they try to unwind the Whale’s mess.

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